Trained on real match data
49,453 matches since 1872 every international
The model learns only from the public record of international results, scores, venues, competitions. No tips, no rumours, no inside information.
Elo ratings, form-sensitive by design
Each team carries an Elo rating that updates after every result, weighted by margin of victory and tournament importance, with a home-advantage adjustment (neutral at World Cup venues). Because the rating moves after each match, recent form is built directly into the probability.
Recent form, shown
Each signal lists both teams' last-5 record so you can see the form the rating reflects.
Live injury feed
We pull a live injury feed from ESPN's public data for every World Cup team and show it next to each fixture. It populates as 2026 squads are officially named; an empty list means none reported yet, not a guarantee of full fitness.
Independently calibrated
On a strict walk-forward backtest across major international competitions since 2002, the World Cup and continental tournaments together with their qualifiers: ECE ≈ 0.03 n ≈ 9,900. Calibrated means when we say 70%, it happens about 70% of the time, verified out of sample. The World Cup 2026 fixtures shown here sit inside that tested population.